First F-35B STOVL flight
Airline profits set for nose dive
C-27J Sparttan completes firt flight in Italy
MK back from the brink
Boeing continues tanker fight
QinetiQ gets Harrier contract
First Boeing P-8A Poseidon gets its wings
Irkut switches to civil designs
First F-35B STOVL flight
Above: With test pilot Graham Tomlinson at the controls, the first short take-off/vertical landing Lockheed Martin
F-35B took off into a blue Texas sky at 10.17am local time on June 11, the first flight of an aircraft that combines stealth, STOVL basing capability and supersonic flight in one design. A former RAF Harrier pilot and now a BAE Systems test pilot, Tomlinson remained in the air for 44min performing conventional flight routines. Known as the BF-1, the first F-35B is the second Lightning II to enter the flight test phase, preceded by the conventional takeoff and landing F-35A which first flew in December 2006.
BF-1 is the second of 19 system development and demonstration aircraft and is the first to incorporate weight saving design features applicable to all future F-35s. Early next year, BF-1 will perform translation trials from conventional flight to short take-off, hovers and vertical landings. The F-35B will be the first of the three variants to enter service beginning with the US Marines in 2012 while the STOVL variant will be employed by the RAF and the RN and Italy’s air force and navy.
In related news, the Dutch parliament has agreed to buy two F-35A, making a down payment, while participating in initial operational test and evaluation of the aircraft thus becoming the third country behind the US and the UK committed to the type. Parliament is insisting that the government examines alternatives including the latest F-16 variants, Dassault’s Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon. The Royal Netherlands Air Force wants to buy 85 conventional take-off and landing F-35As but cautions that the number may shift if the price changes. Meanwhile, Italy is nearing a decision whether to buy 131 F-35s for delivery between 2014 and 2025 to replace AMX and Tornado strike aircraft and AV-8B Harrier II Plus multirole fighters. The air force expects to mix conventional take-off and landing F-35As and STOVL F-35Bs within its 109 aircraft requirement.
Airline profits set for nose dive
At the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general assembly in Istanbul at the beginning of June, analysts issued a bleak picture of airline finances over the coming 12 months. With 24 airlines made bankrupt already this year, figures presented at the meeting indicate worse is to come. ILFC chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy prophesied that the true impact of oil price rises experienced during the first half of the year will only be fully felt in September and October, giving airlines little or no time to adjust. Heavy losses are almost inevitable for 2008, possibly reaching a full-year deficit of $2.3bn compared with an operating profit of $5.6bn in 2007, the first profitable year since 2000. Analysts believe the price of oil will level out at a 2008 year average of $107/barrel leaving airlines with additional costs of $40bn. If they remained at the present level of $130/barrel, airlines would see additional costs of $99bn for 2008 and an industry deficit of $7bn. However, an oil specialist at Goldman Sachs has told Aviation News that he expects oil to reach $200/barrel and stabilise there. On a balance sheet of supply and demand, that price should be around $70/barrel but speculation means that the economic downturn in the US could cut demand and drive speculators to make a quick profit.
The IATA conference heard presentations repeatedly confirm that the unprecedented clash of both oil price rises and a collapse in consumer confidence will drive many more companies into liquidation. Business flying is down substantially on 2007 and tighter credit controls, plus more expensive loans, is pushing first and business class passengers to economy, hitting many carriers that have relied on premium travel to boost profits.
Historically, the industry has had at least four years to boost cash flow trends but the profit of $5.6bn in 2007 came after six loss-making years leaving no cushion to break the fall. As a way of sitting out the crash, several operators are grounding aircraft – United is already planning to lay up a further 100 aircraft reducing capacity by 14% with Continental pulling back its capacity by 11% and American grounding 75 aircraft. United and Continental plan to lay off a total 5,000 workers and American expects to lose ‘several thousand.’ BA’s Willie Walsh sees no way out other than to reduce capacity and is looking at cutting routes, claiming that bankruptcies are already helping to reduce capacity and that survivors will be much healthier for the upturn. JP Morgan analysts expect the industry to level off if capacity is cut by 25%.
However, some airlines fear the downturn is too steep, deep and wide for the industry to ever return to its former shape. All agree that just to offset fuel costs already felt, ticket prices will have to rise by at least 20% and airlines are bracing themselves for repercussions in the travelling public. With a decline in business travel, executives filling cheap seats and premium airlines falling by the wayside, what of the holidaymaker flying on vacation, asked IATA? In recent travel industry surveys the general public put environmental or ‘green’ issues as almost non-existent when it came to choosing a package (only 1% claiming it figures at all in their holiday planning), while 55% put cost as the priority. Airlines fear that competing holiday options could drive away a significant part of summer business with little prospect of it returning.
C-27J Spartan completes first flight in Italy
Below: The first C-27J for the US armed forces made its maiden flight on June 18 at Alenia Aeronautica’s Flight Test Centre, Turin-Caselle. It will be engaged in a test programme accumulating 70 flight hours and 180 ground-test hours, including those carried out in the United States at L3 communications, in Waco, Texas, for the integration of avionics and systems. Delivery of the first aircraft to the US Air Force is scheduled for September 25, 2008. In June 2007 Finmeccanica and prime contractor L-3 won the US bid for a new tactical transport aircraft for the Air Force and the Army, satisfying the Joint Cargo Aircraft requirement, and received a $2.04bn contract for 78 aircraft. (Photo, Alenia)
MK back from the brink
Flying in the face of recent airline closures, the British freight operator, MK Airlines has come back from the brink of bankruptcy following a funding arrangement with Transatlantic Aviation Ltd, part of the Belfairs Management Group of Companies. The announcement came only ten days after Joint Administrators were appointed by the airline’s Board, led by founder and CEO, Mike Kruger. Established in 1991 and flying a fleet of seven Boeing 747-200Fs out of Kent International and Ostend airports, MK Airlines restarted operations on June 20 and returned to normal trading on the company’s European and African services.
Boeing continues tanker fight
Having lost the lucrative and much sought-after $35bn contract to supply the US Air Force with its next airborne tanker aircraft to EADS, Boeing is counting on a decision reversal following the US Government Accountability Office ruling that categorically rejects the USAF’s award decision of February 29. On June 18, the GAO called on the USAF to ‘re-open discussions with the contractors, obtain revised proposals, re-evaluate the revised proposals and make a new source decision’. The move to attempt to throw out the EADS A330-based
KC-30B was prompted by ‘a number of significant errors that could have affected the outcome’ of the competition between Boeing and the winning Northrop Grumman/EADS team. If the USAF accepts the GAO’s recommendations, Boeing could get another chance to claim the contract for 179 new tankers. In the meantime, the AF has 60 days to tell the GAO how it plans to proceed.
All awards involving US companies are automatically challenged by the losing side and the Boeing attempt to reverse the contract award runs entirely to form. It follows other recent awards for the Presidential helicopter which went to AgustaWestland for the EH101 and the US Army’s decision to buy Eurocopter UH-72As. A re-run of the tanker competition would not be easy for Boeing, given that its KC-767 is smaller than the KC-30B and the AF preferred the larger airframe. Boeing considers this as just one of the flaws in the contest of which they were not made aware.
QinetiQ gets Harrier contract
A £24m contract has been awarded by the MoD to QinetiQ for through-life support of the RAF Harrier fleet until they are finally withdrawn from service in 2018. The contract will maintain the Harrier GR.7 and GR.9 aircraft in terms of technical capability and reliability through various upgrades to the fleet and ensure the type is serviceable and operational within RAF guidelines for both home basing at RAF Cottesmore and on out-of-area deployments such as the present one in Afghanistan. The contract also applies to the Harriers flown by MOD at Boscombe Down.
Below: Making its public debut at the recent ILA show in Berlin and displaying an unusual ‘digital’ camouflage, was the first upgraded MiG-29AS (0921) for the Slovakian Air Force. Based at Sliac Air Base, the ‘new’ MiG is one of ten single-seaters and two MiG-29UBS combat trainers to be modified by the Russian manufacturers to full Nato standard with the latest IFF, navigation and radios. The upgrade, which cost around $78m, also extends the service life of the aircraft by a further 10-15 years. (Photo, Av News)
First Boeing P-8A Poseidon gets its wings
Below: Boeing joined the wing assembly and fuselage of the first P-8A Poseidon for the US Navy on May 1 in Renton, Wash. Boeing is building the P-8A, a military derivative of the 737-800, on a new final assembly line. The factory's third line takes advantage of the manufacturing processes and performance standards of the Next-Generation 737. The next major P-8A assembly milestone will be engine installation this summer. The Boeing-led Poseidon industry team remains on track for delivery of the first test aircraft to the Navy in 2009. Under the current System Development and Demonstration contract, the team will build five test vehicles: three flight-test and two ground-test aircraft. The Navy plans to purchase 108 P-8As to replace its fleet of P-3Cs. Initial operational capability is scheduled for 2013. (Photo, Boeing)
Irkut switches to civil designs
Russian production company, Irkut, well-known for its work for Sukhoi on the Su-30, is embarking on the MS-21 (below left) twin-turbofan airliner project intended as a replacement for the Tu-154 in Russia and optimistically, for the A320 and B737 in the west. The type is planned to enter service in 2015. A request for proposals on the engines is being put out this month (August) with selection expected in 2009. Composites too will form a large part of the MS-21 design with Sukhoi likely to produce the composite wing. Draft design is reportedly beginning in 2010.
Irkut is also undertaking a joint venture with Airbus over freighter conversion of the A320/321 (seen below). Set up in 2007, the JV also involves Elbe Flugzeugwerke in Dresden which has been converting A300/310 airliners into cargo aircraft. However, with EADS’ recent decision to sell its stake in Irkut, it remains uncertain over the future of the of the freighter conversion programme.
