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A Sample Feature From Aviation News Paris Show Report
Aviation News’ team Barry Wheeler, Bob Millichap, David Willis, Mike Stroud and Mike Hooks reports.
Above: Pictured on its 24th flight, the Airbus A380 stunned the crowds with an impressive performance that belied its 550 ton max take-off weight. Below: Blazing sunshine complemented the business optimism that was evident throughout the show. (Photos, Bob Millichap).
The RAF’s No 28 Squadron provided the AgustaWestland EH101 display in both the air and on the ground with a pair of Merlin HC.Mk 3s. AgustaWestland, Bell Helicopter and Lockheed Martin are currently refining their EH101 proposal for the US Air Force’s Personnel Recovery Vehicle (PRV) requirement for141 aircraft to replace Sikorsky HH-60G Pave Hawks, with a follow-on order for another 60 for missile-site security duties. Requests for proposals are expected to be released in July, with a contract decision in February 2006. Sikorsky, teamed with Boeing, will offer the HH-92 for PRV, while Bell/Boeing propose a variant of the CV-22 Osprey. The first of 14 EH101s for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force was shipped to Japan in early June, where it will be kitted out by Kawasaki Heavy Industries at Gifu prior to delivery in early 2006. In service the helicopters will be used for airborne mine-countermeasures warfare and Antarctic survey work. Final assembly of the following 13 aircraft will be undertaken in Japan.
Above: Although the expected Emirates order for Airbus A350s did not materialise Qatar Airways made a surprise announcement of an intention to acquire 60 of Airbus’ counter to the Boeing 787. The airline also flagged up a requirement for a 20-strong mixed fleet of Boeing 777-300ER and 777-200LR aircraft. (Photo, Airbus). Eagerly anticipated as the star attraction of the show, the Airbus A380 did not disappoint. In a spectacular demonstration of confidence, the aircraft flew spirited displays every day – twice on the first Monday – and effortlessly and almost silently performed a series of surprisingly tight orbits at bank angles that appeared to be at the roll protection limit of the fly-by-wire control system. Given that the aircraft’s maiden flight was only on April 27 and that it had completed just 21 flights before its arrival at Le Bourget, it was a remarkable achievement for such a fundamentally new aircraft in the early stages of flight test. Displayed at a take-off weight of 705,600lb, the seven-minute routine was flown with the landing gear down throughout. This was explained away as a reflection of the aircraft’s early flight development status and because gear cycling takes a relatively long time. However, behind the scenes it was suggested that it was probably a precautionary move to be doubly sure that there was no recurrence of an early landing gear door microswitch sequencing problem that has since been addressed by some re-rigging. Progress with the flight test schedule has been astonishing with Airbus reporting that more than 100 flight hours had been amassed by the end of the show. Most extremes of the flight envelope have already been explored including the stall, flight to its 375 knot limiting dive speed and maximum operating Mach number of 0.89, cruise at its 43,000ft ceiling and operation at the aircraft’s maximum take-off and landing weights of 1,220,000lb (553,880kg) and 1,125,000lb (510,750kg) respectively. The aircraft has also carried out 13 automatic landings, emergency gravity-fall gear extension, flight at the full aft cg limit, operation of the flight controls with the envelope protection system disabled and deployment of the emergency ram air turbine. Technical problems have so far been minor with fuel pump difficulties, slight tweaking of the flight control system and high oil consumption on one of the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines being typical of the snags reported. Eight A380 airframes have now been assembled and work is already progressing on major assemblies for the 21st aircraft. Despite all this progress, Airbus has announced that deliveries will nevertheless be delayed by up to six months. Various reasons have been given with Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Gustav Humbert, saying that an earlier weight saving effort had required structural redesign and that greater than anticipated complexity of electrical cable looms had slowed progress. Other reports indicated that difficulties had arisen from the late specification of cabin equipment by airline customers and general problems in defining the new types of aircraft interior that the huge size of the A380 allows. However, with the aircraft freed from its flight test schedule to appear all week at the show, it was clear that the delay has not been caused by any fundamental problems with the aircraft itself. Nevertheless, whatever the reason, Airbus is likely to be landed with some substantial late delivery compensation payments. With a development bill already up $1.8bn to $13bn this will increase the break-even point beyond the current 250 sales although it is not expected to exceed 300. So far 154 firm orders and commitments have been made by 15 airlines and freight operators. In a separate major A380 development, Lufthansa Technik and Air France Industries announced the formation of Spairliners, a $50m joint venture to provide A380 operators with spares and technical support. With most airlines ordering relatively small fleets, the new company is hoping it will be able to provide a central source point for all operators and thereby allow it to pass on the benefits of economy of scale. In a further announcement, Lufthansa Technik signed two MoUs with Qatar Airways potentially worth some $150m. One concerned the maintenance and overhaul of the IAE V2500 engines of the airline’s 17-strong A320 fleet while the second centred on a contract to install the Rockwell Collins Tailwind Direct Broadcast Satellite in-flight TV system on the carrier’s 15 A330s. The expected announcement of a large Emirates Airbus A350 order did not materialise but the show was surprised by a Qatar Airways’ revelation that it plans to acquire 60 A350s in a $10.6bn deal. It is thought that Airbus may have requested the airline to say something to counter the lack of an Emirates order and allow the manufacturer to support its earlier claim that it would announce triple digit orders for the A350 at the show. Strangely the announcement was made without Airbus in attendance and the manufacturer gave a separate individual briefing later. However, since Qatar Airways also simultaneously announced a 777 order (see Boeing later), this was probably a reflection of the convoluted politics surrounding the bitter subsidies dispute between Airbus and Boeing. A launch decision on the A350 has now been tabled for September in what is believed to be a move designed to allow the possibility of a negotiated settlement between the two manufacturers to be agreed in the meantime. A September launch date is significant in that the year’s notice Boeing gave of withdrawing from the 1992 agreement on aerospace subsidies expires on October 6 and an A350 launch before then would allow Airbus to legitimately obtain development aid under the terms of that agreement and protect it from any subsequent World Trade Organisation inspired litigation. A September decision would also preclude the possible inflaming of US opinion before a crucial budgetary vote that could include an attempt to block Airbus from bidding for the up-coming USAF tanker requirement. Airbus claimed the planned autumn launch decision was merely a case of optimising industrial capacity in the wake of the A380 although it denied that it was influenced by the delay in the new giant jet’s programme. Whether Emirates hesitancy in its expected A350 order is a result of its irritation over the A380 delay or the trade dispute is not clear and the airline said it was still reviewing its options including the B787. Overall, Airbus was able to end the show with its promised 100 plus A350 sales logging 128 commitments. Its total delivery tally for the year will be at least 360 aircraft and should pass the 400 mark in 2006.
Alenia had a large presence at the show, with an example of the C-27J Spartan II destined for the Hellenic Air Force in the static park (above) and the prototype flying daily. The company teamed up with L-3 Communications (in place of Lockheed Martin) as Global Military Aircraft Systems on April 21, 2005, to promote the aircraft for the US Army’s Future Cargo Aircraft (FCA) requirement for a Short C-23 Sherpa replacement. While the Army is after an initial 33 aircraft the total buy could be for more than 130. A total of 28 C-27Js are currently on order from Bulgaria, Greece and Italy. With fuel prices rapidly escalating, turboprop airliner sales are showing a marked resurgence. In its best commercial year for a decade, ATR reported that in the first six months of 2005 it had secured 52 commercial airline sales of the ATR42/72 in addition to a further 18 for military/maritime patrol operators. As a result, production will increase from 15 aircraft this year through 20 in 2006 to 24 in 2007. The company’s chief executive, Filippo Bagnato, attributed the turboprop market upturn to high fuel prices, renewed airline traffic growth and the expansion of the low cost carrier concept. He claimed that on a 300nm (550km) sector, an ATR72 could offer costs per seat $20-$30 lower than those generated by a 70-seat jet. The ATR42/72 design has also recently emerged from an ageing structures programme which has raised lifetime cycles from 70,000 to 105,000. A reflection of the aircraft’s sales success was marked with a ceremony at the show in which the first of 30 ATR72-500s ordered in February this year by the Indian low fare carrier Air Deccan was handed over.
Above: Indian low-cost carrier, Air Deccan took delivery of this ATR72-500 at the show. It is the first of a 30-strong fleet. (Photo, Av News). Aviation Fleet Solutions confirmed that its Quiet MD-80 noise reduction system would be certificated later this summer. Reducing noise levels by up to 6dB, this would make it the first available retrofit programme to be compliant with the new Stage 4/Chapter 4 standards that will come into effect in 2006. With the MD-80 still in widespread use in Europe and the USA, AFS expects to secure orders from most of the current operators. BAE Systems could well be beginning to regret its decision to cease manufacture of the 146/RJ series with a resurgence in regional airline leasing demand and the likelihood of a new freighter conversion line being set up by its sister company BAE Systems Regional Aircraft. A contract has been signed for a 23-aircraft sales and leaseback arrangement with SN Brussels Airlines while a similar deal for 11 RJs has been concluded with Lufthansa Regional. With a number of airlines seeing little performance difference between proven designs and more expensive new aircraft, the uncertainties of the low-cost airline versus regional airline market has considerably ramped up interest in the RJ series. The freight market is also keenly interested in the aircraft, particularly in light of its already established compliance with Stage 4 noise limits. Indeed the interest is so large that BAES Regional is seriously considering a plan to set up a production/conversion line to re-introduce the BAe 146QT Quiet Trader to the market. The 146 is also showing great promise as a fire bomber as successful trials in conjunction with Tronos of Canada last year will lead to full deployment of a prototype aircraft as part of the US Forestry Service fleet this summer. The Bell/Boeing V-22 Osprey programme is entering a period of maturity after years of steady development, punctuated by several close brushes with cancellation. A total of 22 of the 29 Block A airframes has been delivered (of 63 Ospreys of all standards built) and the first Marine CH-46 Sea Knight squadron to convert to the MV-22B Osprey has recently stood down. On March 1, 2006, it will reform again as VMM-263, while the tiltrotor is expected to achieve an initial operational capability in February or March 2007. The Marine order for 360 MV-22Bs remains and these are due to re-equip 16 CH-46 Sea Knight squadrons and four CH-53D Sea Stallion squadrons. Block B MV-22Bs will be the initial ‘go to war’ variant, equipped with a rear ramp-mounted M240 gun. The first is due to be delivered in December 2005. A full rate production decision will be taken in the third quarter of 2005. The follow-on Block C will be fully funded from Fiscal Year (FY) 09, with deliveries from FY11. Production will increase from 17 in FY07, 24 in FY08, 36 in FY09, 40 in FY10 to 43 in FY11. Boeing announced that it is already looking to increase 787 manufacture by as much as 10-20% in the early stages of the programme in order to meet burgeoning demand. The first three years of production are fully taken up and with firm orders and commitments standing at 266 from 21 airlines and a further 427 ‘active proposals’ in the pipeline from another 24 carriers, new customers now are unlikely to be able to secure deliveries before 2011. Such is the scale of the problem that Boeing has even admitted that it has delayed the closure of 767 production in order to catch what it calls ‘fallback sales’. At the moment plans call for delivery of 95 787s in 2008/9 but it appears that Boeing has secured some unannounced 767 orders because of the 787’s lack of availability. Out in the static park Boeing’s new 9,420 mile range 777-200LR squared up to its Airbus rivals after its first intercontinental flight and while sales of the variant are sluggish, order rates are improving on the back of mixed fleet sales with the -300ER. Indeed, the unusual unilateral Qatar Airways’ aircraft acquisition announcement (see Airbus earlier) also included an intention to order a mix of 20 777-300ERs and -200LRs worth $4.6bn. However like Airbus, the American company also chose not to provide a supporting executive presence. After the show the statically displayed –200LR left on a 20-city global sales tour across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Australia and North America. Later this year it is planned to attempt a world record distance flight lasting around 24 hours, thereby confirming Boeing’s claim that the aircraft can link any two city pairs in the world non-stop. At the ultra-high capacity end of the market, the expected go-ahead for the 747 Advanced did not materialise despite Boeing announcing that for the first time since the 1990s it has increased its 20-year market forecast for large wide-body aircraft. It now predicts a sales volume of 900 aircraft (Airbus predict 1,650) in the 400 plus seat category - up from 790 a year ago – and envisages an equal market split between the 400-500 seat 747 and the 500 plus seat A380. Of this total, Boeing estimates 590 will be passenger aircraft while overall it expects new airliner/freighter sales of all types over the period to amount to some 25,700 aircraft. According to Boeing, requests from potential customers for more time to evaluate the 747 Advanced have pushed any programme launch to the autumn at the earliest. However, there is a lot of interest in the Asia Pacific region – Cathay Pacific, China Airlines and Korean Air are thought to be very keen – while prospects in Europe include Cargolux (said to be the hottest of all) and British Airways. Boeing has selected the General Electric GEnx 787 engine to power the aircraft and it will feature an enhanced wing, new flight deck and reduced noise. The target for service entry is 2009 and with a price of around $220m it will offer a significant capital cost differential over the $272 – $292m reportedly quoted for the A380. Interest in the conventional 747-400 has also shown a marked increase recently, particularly from freight operators, and expected cessation of the line this year has now been postponed indefinitely. The company is also close to going ahead with the higher capacity 737-900X and pending agreement with -900 operators plans to standardise on this variant for all future orders for the largest 737 in the family. Overall, Boeing plans to deliver 320 aircraft in 2005 but this is scheduled to increase to 375-385 in 2006 with 86% of the year’s production already sold. On the military side, Boeing revealed that it is looking at upgrades for the C-17 Globemaster III to improve the aircraft’s short take-off and landing performance to match that of the Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules. Redesigned power-lift flaps, improved Pratt & Whitney F117 engines with an increased power of between 7 and 15%, and a new undercarriage position located under the central fuselage are all being investigated. These improvements could be incorporated in the aircraft from the 223rd C-17. Currently the US Air Force has 180 C-17As on order but has a requirement for at least 222. Bombardier dominated the static line with an impressive array of no fewer than eight aircraft – the Special Edition Learjet 60, Challenger 300, Challenger 604, Global 5000, CRJ700, CRJ705, Q400 and a 415 MP water bomber. The Global 5000 arrived having set a non-stop Chicago-Paris transatlantic speed record and flew the 3,510nm (6,500km) at Mach 0.88 in just 7hr 15min. Significantly this was done with a representative eight-passenger payload from Palwaukee Airport that has just a 5,000ft (1,525m) runway. Despite this handicap the aircraft still arrived with more than the required minimum fuel reserves. Bombardier is enjoying record sales of business aircraft, particularly in Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Last year’s total of 129 deliveries was nearly double that of the year before and although the company would not disclose delivery numbers for 2005, it did say they were still increasing. The company also announced that it had already signed six letters of intent for its new Challenger 800 series of corporate shuttles based on the RJ family and has set a target for this category of aircraft to eventually account for 10% of all business jet sales. Behind the scenes though most talk centred on the future of the CSeries family of 110-135 seat airliners of which a full-scale cabin mock-up was displayed. With both CFM International and IAE declining to develop the new engine vital to achieving the project’s aim of a 15% operating cost reduction over existing aircraft, serious doubts had been raised about the concept’s future. However, Pratt and Whitney Canada has moved into the breech and has pledged to invest $1bn in expanding development of a new 16,000-20,000lb engine design it had been working on to embrace the 23,000lb needed for the CSeries. This news coincided with affirmation of Quebec Government support at a show ceremony in which C$1.8bn ($1.44bn) of official investment was confirmed. Bombardier plans to deliver the first CSeries in 2010 and hopes to have a sufficient order base to launch the project in autumn this year. One of the two Bombardier 415MPs on order for the Hellenic Air Force was displayed in the static line-up. This version has been configured with sensors and systems for maritime patrol among the many islands of the Greek coastline. A nose-mounted radar, forward looking infrared (FLIR) ball mounted under the port wing and side-looking airborne radar (SLAR) mounted on both sides of the rear fuselage – part of the MSS 5000 surveillance system - are among the external differences that distinguish the 415MP from other variants. Engine maker CFM International has not yet committed to a follow-on to its highly successful CFM56 series but it did announce a new LEAP56 (Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion) programme designed to incorporate new cutting edge technologies into the basic CFM56 for future single-aisle aircraft. This will focus on key factors such as lowering operating costs, reduced maintenance, simpler design, lower noise and emissions, new control technologies, improved integration and better diagnostics. It follows the successful TECH56 project which has resulted in a new ‘Tech Insertion’ package that has addressed maintenance costs, Nox emissions and fuel burn and will form the basis of CFM56-7B and –5B engine manufacture from early 2007. A retrofit package will also be available in late 2007 for the 5,400 –5B and –7B engines currently in service. Overall the 23-year-old CFM56 is showing no signs of a downturn in demand. On April 8 the 15,000th engine was delivered and 683 orders were achieved last year. As of May, however, orders for 2005 stood at 594 worth $3.6bn – a rate of about four sales per day!
For the rest of this feature please see the August 2005 issue. |
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