A Sample Feature From Aviation News

Farborough 2006 Show Report

A mid sweltering temperatures and humid air, failed air conditioning and collagpsed electrical systems, Farnborough as always dazzled with the sheer magnitude of its spectable and the buzz of industrial hives. July in Britain is not supposed to be as hot as it was and one manufacturer at least was heard to say they should relocate hot-weather testing to the UK in summer and save fuel! Not quite as exotic though, was the reply. Another wag briefed journalists on a significant improvement to the electrical systems on the aircraft in discussion when all the lights in the building promptly went out and a voice in the dark called for a hand-torch! Water supplies ran dry, people escaped from sultry buildings seeking cool air in the shade – outside – while foreign visitors were totally perplexed and first-timers thoguht they had got off in the wrong country. In reality, Farnborough refelcted all that was good about an industry on the ascendant. Next month we look in depth at the British aerospace industry and probe deep beneath the headlines but this month we report on news and events as they were observed in this most indulgent of weeks on the aviation calendar. News and views abounded on civil, military, engine, ancillary and space products. Most interesting was the confident presentations from new Airbus chief executive Christian Streiff who, having been in the job a mere two weeks, launched forth with all the confidence of a veteran – which in reality he is. Coming to Farnborough fearing a pasting from the media and the customers alike, Airbus turned the tables and announced that the definitive specification of the ‘new’ A350 XWB would be announced within 90 days. Moreover, they left the show with 114 orders worth $9.7b to Boeing’s 72 orders valued at $9.1 b. Most of the new Airbus orders were for the A320 while Boeing sold ten new 747-8 freighters but only four 787s, nevertheless, still the fastest-selling airliner in history. Boeing brought new ideas about stretching the 747-8 and letting airlines decide the upper limit (see page 652) so, Airbus watch out there may well be a competitor to the A380!
Perhaps undersold was the broad range of opportunities opening up for co-operation with Russian aerospace companies. Gone are the days of post-Cold War reticence and inadequate business acumen. Engine builders Klimov (an official Farnborough sponsor) reflected the strength with which these new Russian initiatives are stealing a march on western markets with the powerful display of technical achievement from the vectored-nozzle MiG-29OVT seen daily in the flying display, export deliveries of the Sukhoi Su-25T attack aircraft to Iran and fast paced development of the Sukhoi Superjet 100. The space pavilion was poorly attended and seemed out of place in an essentially aviation–orientated trade show.
As for the flying, with the exception of the MiG-29OVT with flexible nozzls, the remarkable display of the Boeing Super Hornet with fixed nozzles and the unique Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor, the most impressive to watch were the Airbus A340-600 and the A380, performing well in an orchestrated display demonstrating high aerodynamic efficiency and tight manoeuvres. Over the next several pages we review the main stories coming out of Farnborough and provide a hint of trends even now shaping up as industry gets back to business but many changes are in the offing and not a few surprises are to be expected over the coming months.

Above: Landing in front of the new Farnborough control tower and streaming the decelerating drag-chute, the  fully bombed-up IPA1/PT001 Typhoon (ZJ699) completes its daily flying display in front of record crowds on trade and public days. From BAE Systems at Warton, this particular aircraft first flew in April 2002 and completed the majority of clearance testing for the other IPAs. (All photos Av News except where stated).

News and views abounded on civil, military, engine, ancillary and space products. Most interesting was the confident presentations from new Airbus chief executive Christian Streiff who, having been in the job a mere two weeks, launched forth with all the confidence of a veteran – which in reality he is. Coming to Farnborough fearing a pasting from the media and the customers alike, Airbus turned the tables and announced that the definitive specification of the ‘new’ A350 XWB would be announced within 90 days. Moreover, they left the show with 114 orders worth $9.7b to Boeing’s 72 orders valued at $9.1 b. Most of the new Airbus orders were for the A320 while Boeing sold ten new 747-8 freighters but only four 787s, nevertheless, still the fastest-selling airliner in history. Boeing brought new ideas about stretching the 747-8 and letting airlines decide the upper limit (see page 652) so, Airbus watch out there may well be a competitor to the A380! Perhaps undersold was the broad range of opportunities opening up for co-operation with Russian aerospace companies. Gone are the days of post-Cold War reticence and inadequate business acumen. Engine builders Klimov (an official Farnborough sponsor) reflected the strength with which these new Russian initiatives are stealing a march on western markets with the powerful display of technical achievement from the vectored-nozzle MiG-29OVT seen daily in the flying display, export deliveries of the Sukhoi Su-25T attack aircraft to Iran and fast paced development of the Sukhoi Superjet 100. The space pavilion was poorly attended and seemed out of place in an essentially aviation–orientated trade show. As for the flying, with the exception of the MiG-29OVT with flexible nozzls, the remarkable display of the Boeing Super Hornet with fixed nozzles and the unique Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor, the most impressive to watch were the Airbus A340-600 and the A380, performing well in an orchestrated display demonstrating high aerodynamic efficiency and tight manoeuvres. Over the next several pages we review the main stories coming out of Farnborough and provide a hint of trends even now shaping up as industry gets back to business but many changes are in the offing and not a few surprises are to be expected over the coming months.

Above: Airbus A380 MSN001 floats down to a soft landing at Farnborough after its daily appearance in the display. Compromised by late production deliveries declared in recent months, the aircraft showed off the classic Airbus slow speed/high-pitch fly-through during a dual flying display with the Airbus A340-600.

Airbus held centre-stage on the opening day of the Farnborough Show and the world’s waiting press were given some of the answers to the unfolding debacle which only a matter of weeks before had seen boardroom battles as the Europeans fought to regain control of a nose-diving consortium. Christian Streiff, the new Airbus president and CEO of just two weeks, said that ‘we need to regain the confidence of both our customers and shareholders. Yes, Airbus is in the middle of a crisis… the competition [Boeing] is taking advantage of this situation… but Airbus must get out of this crisis stronger, and better than before.’ Two programmes have proved a watershed for the organisation, the yet to be launched A350 and the mega-Jumbo A380.
The former has been revamped as the A350 XWB (extra wide-body) seen right, a family of five medium capacity long-range aircraft designed with a new cabin, new wing, new systems and new engines, aimed at competing and improving on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, but entering service three years after the American aircraft. Variants planned are the A350-800 with 270 seats, A350-900 with 314 seats and the A350-1000 with 350 seats. These will have a range of 8,500nm (15,800km) and a cruise speed of Mach 0.85 with entry into service in 2012. The A350-900F will be the freighter version and beyond this will be the A350-900R ultra long-range design.
Changes designed to give the A350 XWB greater appeal to airlines is a new fuselage cross-section 12in wider than the standard A330 and constant from front to rear of the passenger cabin. The windows will be 2in wider than those on current airliners. A new wing increased in sweep by 3º to 33º. An A380 cockpit layout with fly-by-wire controls to increase commonality with other Airbus types and new engines, initially from Rolls-Royce, with a thrust of up to 95,000lb with lower maintenance costs and a 2% sfc improvement.
To date, 182 commitments have been placed by 14 companies for the A350 of which 100 are firm orders, but Airbus had been criticised that the new design offered little that was new over the A330 or the 787. The A350 XWB is the consortium’s answer and a launch announcement is expected next month (October) when the engineering teams have completed work on the project. First flight is expected in 2011.

Above: Boeing 787 interior configurations matched exotic and spacious proposals from Airbus for the A380 but the full-scale interior mock-up of the 787 gave a sense of aesthetic potential for this and, prospectively future, designs.

Boeing 787 raises the bar
Boeing is planning a revolution in aircraft standards, raising expectations from passengers and designing a new global inclusion strategy launched through their flagship 787 series. We went along to talk about the revolution in design, manufacturing and assembly and to look a little closer at this exciting project. Technically the aircraft is as advanced as it could get and still retain the semblance of a business venture designed for profit, which of course it is. With a completely new approach to composite materials, sophisticated weight saving measures, exotic surface finishes to smooth airflow and aesthetic interiors designed to raise passenger perception of the experience, Boeing is a company in a hurry. Manufacturing diversity is as much a hedge against backlog as an altruistic move to embrace the world’s aircraft builders. But it is a major step for a national manufacturer that demonstrates a sophisticated approach to competitive marketing and partnerships.
It seems to be working. Boeing’s 787 vice-president Mike Bair said the aircraft had attracted 405 firm orders making it one of the fastest selling airliners in history, now expected to enter service in less than two years. With four different types in the series introduced between 2008 and 2012 and a delivery capacity that could easily reach 16 airframes a month, Boeing is embracing a teaming concept with its GoldCare partnership programme. This seeks to appoint large service organisations in selected regions around the globe to provide support for local operators and owners. And for those transitioning from other Boeing types, a special service arrangement that ties the operator to a guaranteed and cost-saving programme providing full support and cost-effective management of assets.
While the European Airbus company scrambles to define the new A350 XWB and divest work throughout the continent, the truly international scene is being transformed by Boeing with a vigorous commitment to global partnerships and sub-contracted manufacturing work around the world. Only a year ago Boeing signed agreements with Chinese suppliers worth approximately $600m for production of parts and components for a range of commercial aircraft including the composite rudder, wing-to-body fairing panels and vertical fin assemblies for the 787. In America, Italy’s Alenia Aeronautica has teamed with Vought Aircraft Industries to form Global Aeronautica and built a factory in North Charleston to produce composite 787 fuselage sections. At Grottaglie in Italy and at factories owned by Fuji, Kawasaki and Mitsubishi in Japan, Boeing has sub-contracted structural elements of the 787 while wing tip units will come from South Korea.
This level of commitment to a truly global partnership is one of several corporate schemes set to inject a new vitality and risk-sharing ideal into aircraft manufacturing. It’s a big gamble but it’s certainly raising the bar of expectation and is reminiscent of the 1950s when Boeing first marketed the 707 to cash-strapped airlines. The philosophy then that overcame the competition has re-emerged today. When de Havilland went to sell the Comet it painstakingly explained to airlines the higher purchase price of the new jet airliner would be recouped through quicker trips and more flights in a given period gathering higher revenues. Boeing simply told the airlines they would part-exchange the old piston-engine airliners for 707s and took the burden of cost on themselves. It was that business tactic more than anything else that swayed the market. It just might repeat the coup in the next decade of unbridled rivalry against another European competitor.

Below: Trainee test pilots at the Empire Test Pilots’ School, based at Boscombe Down and managed by QinetiQ, have the opportunity of flying the Saab Gripen advanced lightweight fighter for a 12.5hr course in Sweden and a two-seat JAS 39B was displayed at the Show in ETPS colours. (Photo, Alan Key).

Super Gripens square up for a fight
While temporary difficulties with partnership alliances and technology transfer issues cloud what Lockheed Martin would like to see as a clear route to multi-national sales of the Joint Strike Fighter, Sweden is not taking this assumption lying down and has put up the Saab Gripen as a contender for fourth generation procurement. Appearing at Farnborough in the daily air display to tempt prospective buyers, the message is clear and distinct: the Vikings are coming back to fight. In fact, the literature produced by Saab claims that the Gripen derives from ‘Nordic heritage and common sense.’ Speaking to us about export prospects, president and chief executive officer Åke Svensson claimed that the potential market for the Gripen was at least 400 aircraft, 200 already on order for Sweden and a further 200 to export. At present, Svensson says 50 have been ordered by South Africa, Hungary and the Czech Republic but he sees several more air forces including Bulgaria that might be tempted to select the Gripen. Cost effective, both Denmark and Norway have put out a request for a JSF alternative and Saab is not shy of coaxing fellow Nordic countries to buy from home. Known as the Gripen DK and Gripen N respectively, enhanced capabilities give them full net-centric warfare capability and Saab claims it to be the most advanced of that exotic breed flying today, shaping up well in simulated confrontations with the JSF.

Coming out to fight
Not so very long ago Boeing decided that the market for a super-heavy, high-capacity, commercial aircraft could not justify the cost of developing a new and bigger Jumbo jet – its Boeing 747 family was big enough. It might just be on the verge of changing its mind – not that any senior Boeing executive would admit that. Nevertheless, it’s tantamount to market creep by stealth but it is one of the more interesting, if subtle, stories to come out of Farnborough 2006. Shortly before Boeing brass took the journey from London down the M3 to Farnborough on the first day of the show they discussed with us the new and heavily revised view of the next 20 years in airline requirements. It is the changes to that revision Boeing will have to use in driving market tactics for selling the 747-8. Boeing predicts that the fleet volume will double in 20 years yielding almost 36,000 airliners worldwide of which 27,000 will be new build. The prediction for very large aircraft over the next 20 years has grown in the Boeing estimate to 810 new aircraft, a mere 3% of sales but 10% by value. So was Airbus right to go for the A380. Not necessarily so.
A closer look at market requirements reveals that the market for 500+ seat airliners will top out at a maximum 325 aircraft leaving 485 for a slightly smaller aircraft. Boeing believes that it is the massive fuel economy (and seat-mile cost) savings of bigger aircraft that is increasing the general requirement for 400+ seat aircraft but that there is a critical ceiling on that advantage around 500 seats. Just a year ago Boeing estimated fuel costs at $35 a barrel but it now projects it to be at least $50 with peaks to $70. A market forecaster involved in the Boeing study tells Aviation News that this was after detailed briefings from the US State Department on national intelligence estimates. So why is the trip point so critical? The capital outlay for 500+ seat airliners like the Airbus A380 is beyond the tipping point where the buy-price is too high for amortising inflated operating costs due to increased fuel charges. In other words, although the 500+ seat aircraft is very much more efficient than current large wide-bodies, the rate at which fuel costs are rising wipes out a fuel-economy advantage preventing the operator clawing back the extra price for the bigger aircraft. Moreover, it will take longer to pay back the equity-loan needed to buy the aircraft in the first place. Bigger looks better but gigantism looks too costly.
Allowing the forecast to drive the specification for the new large wide-body, Boeing is prepared to wait a year before finalising the specification for the 747-8P (passenger) successor to the 747-400. Meanwhile, it is floating the 747-8F (freighter) for market appraisal by tossing a loosely defined specification at the freight operator and asking for comment. With an aerodynamic efficiency improvement of 10% and a fuel cost 15% less than the series 400, the better wing shaping and new Genx-2B67 engines will lower mean seat-mile costs by 8%. The 747-8F has been proposed with an 11ft (3.6m) stretch equating in a passenger version to a seating capacity of 450 in a typical three-class mix. Allowing news of this conversation with freighter markets to filter into the airline gossip tent, Boeing is now getting requests for an 18.3ft (5.6m) stretch passenger version which, by the way, it is happy to accommodate because that idea first came from the freighter people and is already in work! And guess what? That puts seating capacity bang in the middle of the super-heavy market where projections say there will be demand for 485 new aircraft.
If Boeing’s projection is correct, they could capture 60% (485 orders) of the 820-order demand for aircraft in this band leaving Airbus with at most 325 orders for the A380. Yet even this takes no account of the major effort now under way at Boeing to plug the gap between 2007/2008 when the A380 arrives in service and 2009 when the 747-8P arrives with special customer deals. The initial battles are over but the war has only just begun as Boeing refines its model, flexibly adjusts to changing market and pricing trends and lets the customer do the designing. Are you listening Airbus?

Below: Farnborough is helping Boeing define the aerodynamic properties of the 747-8 wing shape and will shortly release a definitive report closing options for a configuration that looks surprisingly like the wing selected for the 787. (Photo, Boeing).

For the rest of this feature please see the September 2006 issue.